Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · LASK vs SK Rapid Wien
Likeliest: LASK win · 49%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LASK49%53%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
SK Rapid Wien26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LASK
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-3
- Sep 13 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at AEK Athens (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)3-0
SK Rapid Wien
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 18 · v WSG Tirol (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-5
- Aug 30 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · v Hearts (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | LASK | SK Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.