Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · LASK vs ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Likeliest: LASK win · 69%
Likely scores: 2–1 12% · 2–0 9% · 3–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LASK69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
ŠK Slovan Bratislava13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LASK
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 31 · v WSG Tirol (H)2-1
- Oct 28 · v SV Ried (H)3-3
- Oct 25 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-3
- Oct 21 · at Sporting (A)3-2
- Oct 17 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · at FK Železiarne Podbrezová (A)2-1
- Oct 28 · at AS Trenčín (A)2-0
- Oct 24 · v Dukla Banská Bystrica (H)2-2
- Oct 20 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Oct 17 · at FC Spartak Trnava (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | LASK | ŠK Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.