Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 15 · 19:45 · Lazio vs AC Milan
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 44%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio28%24%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
AC Milan44%48%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 34% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Mar 9 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Atalanta (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Torino (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · at Cagliari (A)0-0
- Feb 14 · v Atalanta (H)0-2
AC Milan
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 8 · v Inter (H)1-0
- Mar 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Feb 18 · v Como (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Pisa (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.