Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:00 · Lazio vs AC Milan
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio26%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
AC Milan42%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 7 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Genoa (H)1-0
- Aug 24 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v Mantova (H)0-2
- May 23 · v Pisa (H)2-1
AC Milan
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Torino (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Genoa (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.