Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 14 · 17:00 · Lazio vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Lazio win · 37%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio37%27%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Atalanta36%44%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 38% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Feb 11 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Juventus (A)2-2
- Jan 30 · v Genoa (H)3-2
- Jan 24 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Jan 19 · v Como (H)0-3
Atalanta
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 9 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
- Feb 5 · v Juventus (H)3-0
- Feb 1 · at Como (A)0-0
- Jan 28 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v Parma (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.