Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Mar 4 · 20:00 · Lazio vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 48%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio28%28%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Atalanta48%43%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 1 · at Torino (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · at Cagliari (A)0-0
- Feb 14 · v Atalanta (H)0-2
- Feb 11 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Juventus (A)2-2
Atalanta
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Napoli (H)2-1
- Feb 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · at Lazio (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.