Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 7 · 17:00 · Lazio vs Bologna
Likeliest: Bologna win · 54%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio24%37%−14
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−9
OursMarket
Bologna54%32%+22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 38% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 68% | −22 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 63% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 54% | −24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinLossWinLossWin
- Dec 4 · v Milan (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Milan (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Nov 9 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Nov 3 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
Bologna
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 4 · v Parma (H)2-1
- Dec 1 · v Cremonese (H)1-3
- Nov 27 · v Salzburg (H)4-1
- Nov 22 · at Udinese (A)3-0
- Nov 9 · v Napoli (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.