Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Jan 19 · 19:45 · Lazio vs Como
Likeliest: Lazio win · 36%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio36%34%+2
OursMarket
Draw29%32%−3
OursMarket
Como35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 50% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Jan 11 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Cremonese (H)0-0
Como
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-3
- Jan 10 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Jan 6 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- Dec 27 · at Lecce (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.