Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 20 · 17:00 · Lazio vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Lazio win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio58%60%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Cremonese19%16%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 40% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 79% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 13 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Milan (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Milan (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Lecce (H)2-0
Cremonese
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Dec 1 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Roma (H)1-3
- Nov 7 · at Pisa (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.