Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:45 · Lazio vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Lazio win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 38%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio47%38%+9
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−5
OursMarket
Fiorentina27%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 62% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 56% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 4 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Cremonese (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Bologna (H)1-1
Fiorentina
LossLossWinLossWin
- Jan 4 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Dec 27 · at Parma (A)0-1
- Dec 21 · v Udinese (H)5-1
- Dec 18 · at Lausanne Sport (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.