Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Jan 30 · 19:45 · Lazio vs Genoa
Likeliest: Lazio win · 41%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio41%46%−5
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Genoa31%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 36% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 42% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 67% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Jan 24 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Jan 19 · v Como (H)0-3
- Jan 11 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Napoli (H)0-2
Genoa
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 25 · v Bologna (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Parma (A)0-0
- Jan 12 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Jan 8 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Pisa (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.