Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 30 · 18:45 · Lazio vs Genoa
Likeliest: Lazio win · 49%
We make it 67% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio49%48%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%31%−3
OursMarket
Genoa24%22%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 69% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossLossWinLossWin
- Aug 24 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v Mantova (H)0-2
- May 23 · v Pisa (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Roma (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Inter (H)0-2
Genoa
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Ascoli (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Lecce (A)0-1
- May 17 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.