Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 9 · 16:00 · Lazio vs Inter
Likeliest: Lazio win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 23%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio38%23%+15
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Inter35%50%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 53% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 50% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 77% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 31% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- May 4 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Apr 27 · v Udinese (H)3-3
- Apr 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Napoli (A)2-0
- Apr 13 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
Inter
WinWinWinDrawWin
- May 3 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Apr 21 · v Como (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Apr 12 · at Como (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.