Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, May 13 · 19:00 · Lazio vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 40%
A 32% home win. The market says 18%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio32%18%+14
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Inter40%56%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 82% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 24% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 9 · v Inter (H)0-3
- May 4 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Apr 27 · v Udinese (H)3-3
- Apr 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Napoli (A)2-0
Inter
WinWinDrawWinWin
- May 9 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- May 3 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Apr 21 · v Como (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.