Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 23 · 17:00 · Lazio vs Lecce
Likeliest: Lazio win · 46%
A 29% away win. The market says 17%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio46%56%−10
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−1
OursMarket
Lecce29%17%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 76% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Nov 9 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Nov 3 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Oct 30 · at Pisa (A)0-0
- Oct 26 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Oct 19 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
Lecce
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Nov 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at Fiorentina (A)1-0
- Oct 28 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at Udinese (A)2-3
- Oct 18 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.