Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sun, Aug 16 · 19:15 · Lazio vs Mantova
Likeliest: Lazio win · 59%
A 17% away win. The market says 10%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio59%71%−12
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+6
OursMarket
Mantova17%10%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 90% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 29% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 87% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinLossLossLossWin
- May 23 · v Pisa (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Roma (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Inter (H)0-2
- May 9 · v Inter (H)0-3
- May 4 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
Mantova
WinLossWinWinLoss
- May 8 · at Frosinone (A)0-5
- May 1 · v Monza (H)3-2
- Apr 25 · at Südtirol (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Avellino (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Spezia (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.