Coppa Italia (Italy) · Thu, Dec 4 · 20:00 · Lazio vs Milan
Likeliest: Milan win · 37%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio36%29%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−3
OursMarket
Milan37%42%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 43% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 41% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 29 · at Milan (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Nov 9 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Nov 3 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Oct 30 · at Pisa (A)0-0
Milan
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Nov 29 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Parma (A)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Oct 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.