Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 15 · 17:00 · Lazio vs Napoli
Likeliest: Lazio win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Lazio47%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Napoli28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinLossLossWinWin
- Feb 9 · v Monza (H)5-1
- Feb 3 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Jan 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
- Jan 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-1
Napoli
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 9 · v Udinese (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Roma (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Atalanta (A)3-2
- Jan 12 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.