Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 4 · 11:30 · Lazio vs Napoli
Likeliest: Lazio win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 27%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio42%27%+15
OursMarket
Draw28%32%−4
OursMarket
Napoli30%41%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 37% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 73% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 39% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Dec 27 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Cremonese (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Milan (H)1-0
Napoli
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Dec 28 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Benfica (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.