Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 4 · 18:45 · Lazio vs Parma
Likeliest: Lazio win · 57%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio57%53%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Parma20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 9 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Atalanta (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Torino (A)0-2
Parma
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Mar 21 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Mar 13 · at Torino (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Feb 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at AC Milan (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.