Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 18:45 · Lazio vs Parma
Likeliest: Lazio win · 66%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Parma12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Juventus (A)3-0
- Oct 17 · at Ternana (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Monza (H)3-1
- Oct 3 · at AS Roma (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Parma (H)0-0
Parma
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Torino (H)0-3
- Oct 18 · at Inter Milan (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Inter Milan (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · v Ternana (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Lazio (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.