Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 23 · 18:45 · Lazio vs Pisa
Likeliest: Lazio win · 66%
A 66% home win. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio66%61%+5
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Pisa14%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 39% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- May 17 · at Roma (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Inter (H)0-2
- May 9 · v Inter (H)0-3
- May 4 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Apr 27 · v Udinese (H)3-3
Pisa
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 17 · v Napoli (H)0-3
- May 10 · at Cremonese (A)0-3
- May 1 · v Lecce (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Parma (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Genoa (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.