Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Apr 27 · 18:45 · Lazio vs Udinese
Likeliest: Lazio win · 50%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lazio50%47%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−3
OursMarket
Udinese24%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lazio
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Napoli (A)2-0
- Apr 13 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Parma (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Bologna (A)2-0
Udinese
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 18 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at AC Milan (A)3-0
- Apr 6 · v Como (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lazio | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.