LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 11 · 21:30 · LDU vs Barcelona SC
Likeliest: LDU win · 57%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LDU57%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Barcelona SC17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LDU
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Palmeiras (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Técnico Universitario (A)3-1
Barcelona SC
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Delfín (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Aucas (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Manta FC (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Orense SC (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | LDU | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.