LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:30 · LDU vs Macará
Likeliest: LDU win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LDU50%54%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Macará21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LDU
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Aucas (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Barcelona SC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Palmeiras (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-1
Macará
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Independiente del Valle (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Aucas (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Emelec (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Independiente del Valle (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | LDU | Macará |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.