Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Aug 20 · 22:00 · LDU vs Mirassol
Likeliest: LDU win · 59%
We make it 67% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LDU59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Mirassol17%17%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 44% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LDU
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 17 · at Aucas (A)1-0
- Aug 13 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Independiente del Valle (H)0-2
- Aug 4 · v Delfín (H)2-1
- Jul 27 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-0
Mirassol
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 16 · v Flamengo (H)1-5
- Aug 13 · v LDU (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-3
- Aug 5 · at Grêmio (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | LDU | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.