Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Sep 16 · 22:00 · LDU vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: LDU win · 34%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the home win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LDU34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Palmeiras33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 39% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LDU
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Técnico Universitario (A)3-1
- Sep 2 · v Mushuc Runa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-2
Palmeiras
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · v São Paulo (H)2-0
- Sep 9 · v LDU (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Botafogo (A)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Santos (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | LDU | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.