LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Sep 20 · 23:30 · LDU vs Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Likeliest: LDU win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LDU42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Universidad Católica del Ecuador29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LDU
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 16 · v Palmeiras (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Técnico Universitario (A)3-1
- Sep 2 · v Mushuc Runa (H)0-0
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 15 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Delfín (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Aucas (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Independiente del Valle (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Manta FC (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | LDU | Universidad Católica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.