Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 4 · 16:15 · Le Havre vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 45%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre63%45%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Angers SCO14%26%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 74% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 55% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 63% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Dec 21 · v Amiens SC (H)0-2
- Dec 14 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Nov 30 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
Angers SCO
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 12 · v Nantes (H)4-1
- Dec 7 · at Nice (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.