Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Aug 23 · 15:15 · Le Havre vs AS Monaco
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 25%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre43%25%+18
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
AS Monaco32%51%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 49% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 75% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 33% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- May 17 · at Lorient (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- May 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Metz (H)4-4
- Apr 18 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
AS Monaco
Win
- Aug 20 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.