Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 5 · 15:15 · Le Havre vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 42%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre42%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Auxerre31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 55% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 22 · at Paris (A)2-3
- Mar 15 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Nantes (A)0-2
Auxerre
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Mar 21 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Strasbourg (H)0-0
- Mar 1 · at Lorient (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · v Rennes (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.