Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:15 · Le Havre vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Auxerre34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Lille (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Toulouse (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Angers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Stade Brestois (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-1
Auxerre
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Stade Rennais (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Stade Brestois (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Angers (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.