Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 30 · 16:15 · Le Havre vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 40%
A 35% home win. The market says 22%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre35%22%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
LOSC Lille40%52%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 78% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 30% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Nantes (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Brest (H)1-0
- Oct 26 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
LOSC Lille
WinLossLossWinWin
- Nov 27 · v Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-0
- Nov 23 · v Paris (H)4-2
- Nov 9 · at Strasbourg (A)0-2
- Nov 6 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v Angers SCO (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.