Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 26 · 15:15 · Le Havre vs Metz
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre60%59%0
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Metz18%17%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 77% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 18 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Paris (A)2-3
- Mar 15 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
Metz
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 19 · v Paris (H)1-3
- Apr 10 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Rennes (A)0-0
- Mar 15 · v Toulouse (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.