Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 15 · 16:15 · Le Havre vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 44%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre33%26%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais44%46%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 36% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 8 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Nantes (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Toulouse (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
Olympique Lyonnais
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Nice (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.