Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 43%
We make it 74% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre33%28%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille43%46%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 58% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 72% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 38% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- May 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Metz (H)4-4
- Apr 18 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
Olympique Marseille
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Nantes (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Apr 10 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Monaco (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.