Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 28 · 20:05 · Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 53%
A 26% home win. The market says 10%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre26%10%+16
OursMarket
Draw22%16%+5
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain53%73%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 27% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 90% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 12% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 22 · at Nantes (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Toulouse (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
- Jan 30 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Monaco (H)0-0
Paris Saint Germain
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Feb 21 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 17 · at Monaco (A)3-2
- Feb 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Feb 8 · v Olympique Marseille (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.