Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 15 · 14:00 · Le Havre vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Le Havre win · 37%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Havre37%29%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Toulouse36%41%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 42% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 41% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Havre
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Feb 8 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
- Jan 30 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Rennes (A)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
Toulouse
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 8 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
- Feb 4 · v Amiens SC (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Auxerre (H)0-0
- Jan 25 · at Brest (A)2-0
- Jan 17 · v Nice (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Le Havre | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.