Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Mar 7 · 13:00 · Le Mans vs Annecy
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 47%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans47%40%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Annecy27%30%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 57% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Feb 28 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Guingamp (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at Montpellier (A)2-4
- Feb 7 · v Laval (H)1-1
- Feb 3 · at Reims (A)0-3
Annecy
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Feb 27 · at Bastia (A)2-0
- Feb 20 · v Red Star (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Feb 6 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Dunkerque (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | Annecy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.