Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · Le Mans vs Clermont
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 59%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans59%55%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Clermont20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 52% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at Boulogne (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Pau (H)4-0
- Mar 20 · at Amiens SC (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · at Nancy (A)4-2
- Mar 7 · v Annecy (H)3-0
Clermont
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · v Nancy (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)2-2
- Mar 20 · v Red Star (H)0-1
- Mar 13 · v Pau (H)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Troyes (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.