Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:45 · Le Mans vs Lorient
Likeliest: Lorient win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Lorient37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v RC Lens (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Stade Rennais (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · v Stade Brestois (H)2-2
- May 2 · v Reims (H)1-1
Lorient
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at RC Lens (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Troyes (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Le Havre (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.