Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Apr 6 · 18:45 · Le Mans vs Pau
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans46%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Pau28%24%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 76% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 67% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 20 · at Amiens SC (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · at Nancy (A)4-2
- Mar 7 · v Annecy (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Guingamp (H)1-1
Pau
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Mar 20 · v Montpellier (H)0-0
- Mar 13 · at Clermont (A)1-0
- Mar 6 · v Bastia (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · v Saint-Étienne (H)0-3
- Feb 21 · at Troyes (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.