Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Sep 13 · 15:15 · Le Mans vs RC Lens
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans17%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
RC Lens60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 25% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Stade Rennais (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · v Stade Brestois (H)2-2
- May 2 · v Reims (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)1-1
RC Lens
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 10 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Lorient (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Auxerre (H)5-2
- Aug 16 · v PSG (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | RC Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.