Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 18:00 · Le Mans vs Reims
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 41%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Le Mans41%38%+4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Reims28%34%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 49% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 36% | 55% | −19 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 66% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 53% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Le Mans
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 25 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)1-1
- Apr 17 · v Clermont (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Boulogne (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Pau (H)4-0
- Mar 20 · at Amiens SC (A)4-3
Reims
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 25 · v Nancy (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Red Star (H)3-2
- Apr 10 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v Boulogne (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Guingamp (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Le Mans | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.