Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 27 · 14:00 · Lecce vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 36%
A 35% home win. The market says 20%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce35%20%+15
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Como36%53%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 47% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 80% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 27% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Dec 12 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Dec 7 · at Cremonese (A)0-2
- Nov 30 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Nov 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-0
Como
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 15 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Inter (A)0-4
- Nov 28 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Nov 24 · at Torino (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.