Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Apr 20 · 18:45 · Lecce vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 37%
A 36% home win. The market says 28%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce36%28%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Fiorentina37%43%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 72% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 39% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
- Mar 22 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
Fiorentina
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Apr 16 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Apr 13 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Apr 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Mar 22 · v Inter (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.