Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:45 · Lecce vs Genoa
Likeliest: Lecce win · 37%
A 35% away win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce37%54%−17
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Genoa35%19%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 46% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 74% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- May 17 · at Sassuolo (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- May 1 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-0
- Apr 20 · v Fiorentina (H)1-1
Genoa
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 17 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Apr 26 · v Como (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Pisa (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.