Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 21 · 17:00 · Lecce vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 56%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce21%13%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Inter56%64%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 36% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 87% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 16% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Feb 16 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v Udinese (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
Inter
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 18 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
- Feb 14 · v Juventus (H)3-2
- Feb 8 · at Sassuolo (A)5-0
- Feb 4 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.