Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 9 · 18:45 · Lecce vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 49%
A 23% home win. The market says 13%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce23%13%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Juventus49%66%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 54% | −25 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 34% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 87% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 16% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- May 1 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-0
- Apr 20 · v Fiorentina (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
Juventus
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at AC Milan (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v Bologna (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Genoa (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.