Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:00 · Lecce vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 71%
Likely score: 0–1
A 71% away win. The market says 66%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lecce8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%22%0
OursMarket
Juventus71%66%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 16% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lecce
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Udinese (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at AC Milan (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Monza (H)3-2
- Sep 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
Juventus
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Lazio (H)0-3
- Oct 18 · v Como (H)2-4
- Oct 15 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Cagliari (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · at AC Milan (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lecce | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.